The global smartphone market is expected to see a 1 percent growth in 2025, reaching around 1.24 billion units, according to a new forecast from IDC. This is a slight improvement compared to earlier projections of 0.6 percent, showing signs of resilience despite economic challenges.
The main drivers of this growth will be Apple’s iOS performance and strong replacement demand, with IDC projecting a steady 1.5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2029.
iOS and Replacement Demand Lead the Way
IDC’s data highlights that iOS shipments are set to grow by 3.9 percent in 2025, playing a key role in lifting the overall smartphone market. While global demand remains under pressure due to inflation and weak spending, customers replacing older devices will continue to push sales upward.
Markets such as the US (+3.6 percent), Middle East & Africa (+6.5 percent), and Asia Pacific excluding China (+0.8 percent) will help balance out a 1 percent decline in China, where reduced subsidies and economic headwinds are slowing growth.
Value Over Volume: Premium Smartphones Take the Lead
Even though overall smartphone shipments will only rise slightly, the market’s value is expected to grow more strongly. IDC predicts a 5 percent increase in average selling prices (ASP) and a 6 percent rise in overall revenue in 2025.
Smartphone makers are focusing on value creation rather than sheer volume, prioritizing:
- Slimmer and premium designs
- Generative AI (GenAI) features
- Foldable devices
- Advanced camera systems
Aggressive marketing campaigns and interest-free financing are also making high-end models more accessible to consumers.
GenAI Smartphones Set to Rise
Generative AI is emerging as a key differentiator in the smartphone market. IDC estimates that 370 million GenAI smartphones will ship in 2025, making up about 30 percent of global shipments. By 2029, GenAI smartphones could account for more than 70 percent of the market as features expand to mid-range models.
Foldable Phones: A Fast-Growing Niche
The foldable smartphone market is also gaining traction. IDC expects foldable shipments to grow by 6 percent in 2025, followed by further growth in 2026 (+6 percent) and 2027 (+11 percent).
Although foldables will remain a niche segment, representing under 3 percent of the market by 2029, innovations from brands like Samsung, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Huawei are making devices more durable and affordable, helping boost adoption.
Conclusion
The global smartphone market in 2025 is expected to grow modestly by 1 percent, but its value and innovation potential are increasing much faster. With iOS growth, strong replacement cycles, and the rapid rise of GenAI and foldables, the industry is shifting toward premium devices and smarter technologies.
This balanced outlook suggests that even in a challenging economy, the smartphone industry is set to remain resilient and forward-looking.