In a dramatic turn of events for the global AI‑chip market, Donald Trump has recently approved the export of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China. On the surface, this seems like a major win — Nvidia gets access to a massive market, and China could tap into powerful hardware for its AI ambitions. But the timing of this move raises an important question: is this decision already too late to significantly influence the pace of China’s AI and semiconductor development? The answer may well be yes — and here’s why.
What Happened: The H200 Export Approval
Under the newly announced policy, Nvidia can export its H200 processors to “approved customers” in China — provided those chips are vetted by the US Commerce Department. A 25% surcharge applies to each sale.
This marks a major reversal from the restrictions imposed under the previous administration, which barred shipments of high‑end AI chips to China.
Notably, the approval covers only the H200 — Nvidia’s second‑most advanced AI chip — and excludes its top‑tier Blackwell or Rubin chips.
Why This Could Help Nvidia — But Maybe Not Much
For Nvidia, this is potentially a big deal. China has long represented a huge market for AI chips — data centers, cloud providers, research labs — and re‑opening that channel could bring in substantial revenue. The policy shift may offer a lifeline after months of regulatory uncertainty.
From a US perspective, the 25% fee on sales offers a new source of revenue, aligning with what Trump described as a balance between national security, American jobs, and economic interests.
However, this optimism may be tempered — the H200, while powerful, is not the absolute top‑end chip. And its performance, though substantial, lags the Blackwell chips used in cutting‑edge AI applications.
The Catch: Why the “Window” May Have Already Closed
Here’s where things get complicated. Even as the U.S. removes one barrier, China appears to be placing tighter restrictions internally. Reports suggest Chinese regulators are preparing to limit access to foreign‑made AI chips — aiming to push domestic chipmakers to fill the demand.
China has recently added locally-developed AI chips to its official procurement lists, signaling a clear shift toward self‑reliance and reducing dependence on foreign technology.
In this context, importing H200 chips may not gain the expected traction. Even if allowed, demand might be muted, especially if China encourages — or mandates — use of homegrown AI hardware in government and state-backed institutions.
Another problem: the export deal requires that chips be “approved customers only,” adding bureaucratic friction. The vetting process, import surcharge, and oversight might make H200 chips less attractive or slow to arrive.
Finally, the broader architecture of the industry is shifting. Chinese firms have been investing heavily in domestic AI chip development for years. With incentives from the government and a push for “technological sovereignty,” they are increasingly likely to stick with local alternatives rather than rely on U.S. imports.
What This Means for Global AI Rivalry
This episode — green‑lighting H200 exports, combined with China’s move toward domestic chips — reflects the evolving nature of the global AI‑chip supply chain. On one hand, Nvidia may regain some business, and U.S. policymakers get a new revenue stream. On the other, China’s push for self-sufficiency may blunt the impact of these exports.
Ultimately, while the export permission may have opened a door, the broader forces in geopolitics and supply‑chain strategy suggest that window may already be closing.
Conclusion
The decision by Donald Trump to allow Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China is undoubtedly big news. But despite the potential upside — for Nvidia and parts of the U.S. economy — the timing and evolving context make it uncertain how much real impact this move will have. With China rapidly promoting domestic chips and setting internal restrictions, the external influx of H200 chips may be too little, too late.
Disclaimer: This blog is based on publicly available news reports and analysis as of December 2025. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or policy advice.